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Mizuho EMEA G4 Rates & FX Monthly Forecast

Sharing with you our 2025 G4 Outlook:

  • US growth outperformance vs Europe accelerates. Tariffs exacerbates the problem. Labour market slowdown the risk vs business activity holding up.
  • European growth struggling from a slow easing cycle, China liquidity trap and a lack of fiscal easing. Service inflation in Europe to slow faster than expected but goods inflation a key risk to all with rising natural gas prices.
  • Strong Service growth in Japan keeps it’s cycle de-correlated from peers. BOJ to hike rates slowly but with political risks ahead (US tariffs, Japan election risks).
  • UK data to deteriorate in early Q1 after the budget impact on employment becomes clearer. BOE to become more forward looking less Service CPI driven.

 

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